STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN THE CASPIAN SEA LEVEL ON COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS

Abstract

The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of changes in the Caspian Sea level on the condition of coastal ecosystems during the period 1980–2025. The study is based on the synthesis of long-term hydrometeorological observations, satellite remote sensing data, and the results of regional environmental studies. Persistent long-term trends in sea level fluctuations, changes in the hydrological balance, and the spatial dynamics of biodiversity have been identified in the coastal sectors of Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan. It has been established that the average rate of decline in the Caspian Sea level is approximately 6.4 cm per year, leading to the degradation of coastal and wetland ecosystems, a reduction in waterfowl populations, shoreline transformation, and the loss of key spawning grounds for commercially important fish species. Projections of potential changes in sea level and ecosystem conditions up to 2050 were carried out using CMIP6 climate scenarios. Based on the results obtained, priority measures for adaptation, environmental management, and the development of a long-term monitoring system are proposed. The findings may be used in the development of regional strategies for nature conservation and sustainable natural resource management under conditions of intensifying climate change in the region. The results obtained emphasize the need to strengthen interstate cooperation between the Caspian littoral countries in order to effectively respond to environmental challenges and minimize the negative effects of sea level decline