FORESIGHT RESEARCH: FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY IN THE PRACTICE OF INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE

Abstract

The scientific article is devoted to the study of the methodology and practice of using Foresight analysis to forecast the development of science and technology based on international experience. The article discusses the basic concepts and tools of Foresight methodology, and also presents an analysis of the application of this methodology in various countries. Particular attention is paid to the experience of leading research centers and organizations, as well as adaptation of the methodology to the specifics of national innovation systems. The results of the study allow us to draw conclusions about the potential of Foresight analysis as a tool for effective forecasting and management of scientific and technological development at the international level.

The article highlights the differences in the structure and methodology of forecasting scientific and technological development between the countries of Western Europe and Russia. The focus is on priority areas for the development of science and technology, as well as key issues related to ensuring sustainable economic and energy development for the projected period up to 30-50 years ahead. The authors discuss the differences in forecasting methods, noting the use of such methods as the Delphi method, expert panels and scenarios in government foresight. The text also examines the impact of the results of foresight projects on the formation of development strategies and decision-making at the state level. Special attention is paid to Russia's experience in the application of Rapid Foresight technology and its role in the development of strategic documents such as Foresight Education 2035 and Foresight of the National Technology Initiative. The challenges and prospects for the development of forecasting methods, including the use of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, are analyzed.