TRENDS IN AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATIONIN THE MANGYSTAU REGION OVER THE PAST 50 YEARS

Abstract

This article examines changes in air temperature and precipitation in the Mangystau region over the past 50 years (1974-2024). Using long-term meteorological data from the Climate and Weather database, an analysis of average annual and seasonal temperatures, as well as the annual precipitation distribution, is carried out. The results showed a steady warming trend: the average annual air temperature increased by more than 1.0 °C, with the most pronounced and stable increases observed in spring and summer. Winter and autumn temperatures also show a positive trend, accompanied by a decrease in the number of extremely cold periods. The early onset of the warm season and the increase in summer temperatures have an impact on phenological processes, accelerate evaporation and increase the heat load on ecosystems and populations. Precipitation analysis revealed high interannual and intra-decadal variability typical of arid territories: from extremely dry years with precipitation less than 70 mm to abnormally wet years exceeding 270 mm. The main contribution to the formation of the water balance is made by the cold period, while summer precipitation remains limited and relatively stable. The combination of warming and uneven precipitation distribution increases the aridity of the region and increases the vulnerability of natural and agricultural systems to climatic stress and extreme events. The results obtained emphasize the need to take into account both temperature and sedimentary dynamics when developing strategies for adaptation to climate change and management of water and natural resources in Mangystau.