FORECAST OF POLLUTION DYNAMICS IN THE COASTAL PART OF THE CASPIAN SEA USING MATHEMATICAL MODELING

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to study the dynamics of heavy metal pollution in the coastal zone of the Caspian Sea using a mathematical model based on empirical data to predict the environmental situation. Physico-chemical analyses of soils have been carried out, mathematical models based on empirical data from the coastal zone have been constructed. Time-dependent functions were determined for each type of substance. In our case, experimental data for comparing the trend were obtained in 2019, 2021 and 2023. A simulation of second-order polynomial functions with an accuracy factor of R=1 has been carried out, on the basis of which a model of the distribution of heavy metal concentrations for the coming years is predicted from data on the composition of heavy metals in the soil. The content of heavy metals in research centers has shown various trends. It should be noted that the chromium content is decreasing, and the content of nickel, copper and other metals indicates a forecast increase in the future, which requires constant monitoring and monitoring. Trends to prevent serious environmental impacts. The results allow us to identify trends in the use of coastal zones and reservoirs, which are useful for developing recommendations on sustainable resource management.